"The US will become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come", said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director.
Brent crude oil prices dipped below $63 a barrel today as the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its oil demand forecast down due to mild early winter temperatures and rising production from some countries. This latest move comes as investors expect figures to show U.S. oil production has risen.
"The scenario would see demand grow from 95.4 million barrels per day, in 2016, to reach 111.1 million barrels per day by 2040, with the global economy growing by an average of 3.5 per cent per year during that time".
Two major trends are unfolding in global oil and gas markets, but Canada seems unable to take advantage of the first one, and is already an unfortunate casualty of the other, says a new report. The IEA also predicts that wind power will become the leading source of electricity generation in the European Union shortly after 2030.
"While other major companies continue to maintain a presence in oil sands operations, it remains an open question whether the exit of these companies will impact prospects for oil sands development over the longer term", the IEA said.
Crude oil markets are expected to be oversupplied in the current quarter and going into 2018, the IEA said.
Another milestone will be reached soon after: By the late 2020s, the US - which only lifted its ban on oil exports in 2015 - will ship more oil to foreign markets than it imports.
The IEA said planned and unplanned disruptions from OPEC may be offset elsewhere, however.
Myllyvirta said worldwide targets to curb global warming and reduce deaths from air pollution nevertheless require a greater commitment to renewable energy sources.
For all of 2017, total demand is now forecast at 97.7 million barrels a day, up by 1.5 million barrels a day (1.6%) compared to 2016.
Crude has climbed lately to a two-year high around $57 USA a barrel in trading in NY, although it is not seen making much larger gains due to rising U.S. output.
While the IEA's base-case scenario projects oil prices reaching US$83 per barrel by 2025 and as high as US$111 by 2040, a low oil-price scenario could see prices stuck in the US$50 to US$70s if electric passenger cars take off, USA tight oil production continues to rise and upstream costs decline.
After hitting a 10-year low of less than $30 in January, down from a peak of more than $100 in mid-2014, oil prices have recently been hovering around the $55 mark.