Most of the bets on rising prices are overwhelmingly concentrated on Brent Crude, rather than on WTI or gasoline or other oil products. "Because, at some point of time, OPEC will also need to be anxious that if the prices just go up in countries like India and China and if the demand goes down, they may have the oil, but nobody will buy it", he said. OPEC members should be concerned about potential causes and timing of the next oil price crash.
But where the committee sees a balanced market and warned about downside risks to demand in 2019, traders see a market that is increasingly tight and are anxious about the adequacy of future supply.
While U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures still below the $80 per barrel mark at $75.66 a barrel.
It's also interesting that the oil price remains high, even though Russian Federation increased its output during September, to a record high level of 11.356 million barrels of oil and condensate a day.
Exchange data show hedge funds' combined net long position in Brent and U.S. light crude futures and options at its largest since late July, equivalent to about 850 million barrels.
More fundamentally, oil markets have been pushed up by looming USA sanctions against Iran's oil industry, which at its most recent peak this year supplied nearly 3 percent of the world's nearly 100 million barrels of daily consumption.
State oil giant Saudi Aramco is expected to pick up an additional 550,000 bpd of oil production capacity from two major oil fields in the fourth quarter, so it would be able to increase production if there's demand, said a report. Hedge funds' longs in Brent Crude increased for a fifth week running, while the number of shorts slumped to their lowest since May of 2016.
"U.S. (fiscal) tightening, higher oil prices and ongoing trade frictions are all taking their taking their toll on the growth outlook", HSBC said.
And, as concerns over supply remain elevated, a growing pool of analysts are anticipating the price of the valuable commodity could hit $100 per barrel.
The three on average expect non-OPEC crude supply - they do not even try to predict what OPEC will do - to outstrip global demand next year by 580,000 bpd, similar to this year, leaving OPEC to supply the difference if it chooses to. The history of oil price cycles indicates that is not impossible. In the meantime, the blame game is heating up, with the White House and OPEC each trying to claim the rise in prices is not their fault. Trump has gone after OPEC multiple times this year, including while speaking at the United Nations on Tuesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump called Saudi Arabia's King Salman on Saturday and they discussed efforts being made to maintain supplies to ensure oil market stability and global economic growth, Saudi state news agency SPA reported.
Saudi Arabia is the world's top oil exporter and OPEC's de-facto leader.
So boom, then bust? Oil prices are not inherently self-stabilising and display strongly non-linear and cyclical behaviour. As a result, more USA crude oil would be shipped to Asian market. It is very hard to balance it just right.
Despite the market's bullish sentiment in recent days, JBC noted that oil inventories aren't drawing down the way they were at this time a year ago, and said there are some signs of slackening demand for oil.
If the past is any guide, and it usually is, OPEC and its allies will resist changing production, citing concerns about consumption and the growth in alternative supplies, until the political pressure on them becomes overwhelming.