USA sanctions on Iranian oil take effect on November 4 and buyers are already stopping or scaling back their Iranian crude dealings, according to tanker data and industry sources.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, with USA futures settling below $70 a barrel for the first time in a month, after United States crude stockpiles rose 6.5 million barrels, nearly triple what analysts had forecast, while exports dropped.
Certainly, Saudi Arabia has the largest production capacity among OPEC countries.
During an energy conference on October 3 in Moscow, Saudi Arabia energy minister Khalid Al-Falih revealed that his country is producing 10.7 million barrels of oil a day - a rate that is near the country's output record set almost two years ago.
Other data from the IEA backs up this trend.
Kardor said Iran did not have any difficulties receiving payments for oil exports and said the Islamic Republic could accept payments in euros instead of dollars if necessary.
Reuters' data confirms earlier reports from TankerTrackers.com, which repeatedly warned that Iran's oil exports have not fallen by as much as official shipping data suggests: NIOC tankers began switching off their transponders to hide their routes earlier this year. "As our leaders have said it will be impossible to stop Iran from selling its oil". The oil was later sold to buyers in South Korea and India.
"We do intend to continue our engagement with the USA and other statekeholders to ensure our energy security and to protect our national interests", Kumar said.
So for the sake of simplicity, I will rely on the numbers I found from one of the famous oil-tanker tracking agencies.
An OPEC and non-OPEC monitoring committee found that oil producers' compliance with a supply-reduction agreement fell to 111 percent in September from 129 percent in August, three sources familiar with the matter said.
The furtive shipments from Iran to India demonstrate the limits of US power. The second round, which will hit the Iranian oil industry and banking relations, is slated for November 4. However, Iran's customers began cutting their orders after Trump announced in May that sanctions would be re-imposed. OPEC+ needs only the amount of crude that customers will cease to buy from Iran. These volumes, in particular, are likely most at risk as European companies are much more intertwined with the United States, and as such, are vulnerable to American sanctions. USA light crude CLc1 was 40 cents higher at $69.05. "But right now Iran's oil has reached more than $80 and with half the previous exports we will have the same income as before". The loss of supply from Iran and the sudden tightness in the market would offer some justification for an SPR release, Jason Bordoff of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy said in an interview with S&P Global Platts. The Saudi kingdom has stated that it would respond with greater action, if it receives any action from the U.S.
Consequently, the market remained balanced in a way that continued to support prices. John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser, previously said the goal is to get Iran's oil exports down to "zero" by November.